Wednesday, August 16, 2023

Losing for Future Losses

It's not been a good year for the St. Louis Cardinals. Hard to complain too much about their first losing season since 2007, but it has been a generally miserable experience watching them find ways to lose. 

Early on, it was the starting pitching - minus the since-traded Jordan Montgomery - being mostly garbage. When that started to round into form, the bullpen started blowing every lead it was handed. Didn't matter which reliever they used, he'd fuck it up somehow. The offense would alternate explosion of eight or more runs with weeks where they couldn't score more than three. The defense, which had been a strong point the previous two seasons (and is vital for a pitching staff that still doesn't strike anybody out), degraded through a combination of injuries, poor personnel choices, and just inexplicable play from normally good defenders.

Nolan Arenado's won a lot of Gold Gloves, but one could have expected some age-related decline as he continued into his early 30s. I didn't expect him to look like his talent was stolen by the Monstars in a baseball-themed remake of Space Jam.

Anyway, the season's done in any real sense beyond seeing if any of the younger players can show progress, or waiting for a few of the veterans to reach personal milestones. Adam Wainwright's quest for 200 wins has been difficult to watch. He pitched so well the first 5 months of last year, I really figured his struggles in September were related to the ground ball he took off the knee. If so, the issue has lingered for over 11 months now.

Situation being what it is, there's at least some portion of the fanbase rooting for the team to be as bad as possible. To tank, in pursuit of a higher draft pick next summer. I guess they figure the team is going to lose anyway, they might as well look for the silver lining.

I can't quite get to that perspective, never have been able to get into tanking as something to support. It seems contrary to the idea of competitive sports. You're supposed to be trying to win. Plus, thanks to all those years watching the Arizona Cardinals, I've seen too much losing due to incompetence rather than design to be enamored with, "We're losing, but it's on purpose!"

Besides, tanking's not a one-year strategy. Certainly not in baseball where it usually takes multiple seasons before a draft pick makes it to the major leagues. It ended up working out for the Astros and (to an extent) the Cubs, but the Astros had 162 wins and 324 losses over a 3-year span, then lost 92 games the next year before finally reaching the playoffs. Took another two years, plus trash can aided cheating - to win a World Series. The Cubs weren't quite that bad - 198 wins to 288 losses over 3 years, then an 89 loss-season before making the playoffs - but their run also ended much faster.

Point being, if the Cards do tank the way some of these folks are rooting, it won't stop with this season. While getting to pick earlier in the draft improves the chances of getting a difference maker, high draft picks crap out all the time in baseball. Pitchers get injured, or can't learn a changeup. Position players turn out to be unable to hit better pitching. It takes a lot of good players to make a good baseball team, not just one or two (ask the Los Angeles Angels.) And it takes time for those players to make it through the minor leagues before they can help. Tanking this year might improve the team in 2026, but it isn't going to do shit for 2024.

It's probably moot, since the Cardinals seem to like being competitive every year. Have a good chance to make the playoffs, then hope things break right their way so they can win it all. Plus, they rely a bit more on attendance for revenue than some of the other franchises. Losing teams don't put butts in the stands with or convince people to buy $12 beers (at least, not at the ballpark), so hopefully this isn't the start of a long trough.

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