Drifting Into An Uncertain Offseason

Sports post. Don't say you weren't warned.

The St. Louis Cardinals' season left me with mixed feelings. Hard to complain they made it to the NLCS, especially given where they were at the All-Star Break. At the same time, I'd have liked for them to win at least one game. Just don't get swept, that's my bare minimum requirement for a team I root for in the playoffs. I don't think it's a high bar, but their offense no-showed the first two games. Not too surprising given the Nationals' pitching and the Cardinals' frequently anemic offense. Then their defense did the same the last two games. A little more surprising, since the Cardinals had a pretty good defense this year, until you notice the manager kept playing guys who were bad at defense. If two-thirds of your outfield is Dexter Fowler and Jose Martinez, your outfield defense sucks.

Since I don't care about the Astros or Nationals, my attention turns to the off-season. I don't know what the Cardinals plan to do. There are rumors, of course. Adam Wainwright is coming back (fine). Marcell Ozuna is getting the qualifying offer and will decline (good for both parties). The Cardinals want Matt Carpenter to take some reps in the outfield (terrible idea). Who knows if any of that turns out to be true.

This is a blitheringly obvious statement, but the Cardinals need more players who are really good. Hey, I said it was obvious. What I mean is, the Cardinals have a lot of guys who are roughly average. Maybe a little better, maybe a little worse. And that, plus a few pretty good players - this year, Jack Flaherty and Kolten Wong, maybe Paul DeJong - is enough to be in contention for a playoff spot most years. The Cards didn't make the postseason an of the previous three years, but they were in the hunt until near the end each year. But it leaves them a clear step below what appear to be the elite teams, like Houston, or the Dodgers, probably the Nationals (who have several excellent players, but are hamstrung by their shit bullpen)*.

Not likely other teams will just trade players like that to the Cardinals, nor do teams normally let such players reach free agency. When they do, the Cards don't typically win the bidding wars. In the cases of Jason Heyward and David Price, maybe that's a good thing. Not a good thing in the case of Max Scherzer, who the Cardinals seemingly had zero interest in, even when he said he wanted to play for them.

So that leaves developing their own, and also getting them time to play. Which is the tricky part in places, because the Cardinals infield, at least, is kind of full. Yadier Molina is the starting catcher for seemingly as long as he says he is. Paul Goldschmidt's 5-year contract doesn't even start until this upcoming season, and he's coming off the worst year of his career. Paul DeJong's under contract for four more years, but he's good so that's fine. Matt Carpenter is under contract a couple more seasons, and coming off the worst year of his career. They couldn't move him, even if they were inclined to, which they don't seem to be.** Kolten Wong is probably tradeable, but he was also their best position player this year. It's an opportunity to sell high, but I'm not sure how much you could get back, and unless it's someone good, like a frontline starting pitcher to pair with Flaherty, I don't see the point.

Besides, the Cards don't really have any infielders near the major league level who look like real difference makers. Utility guys and league average dudes mostly, although one of them could always surprise once they reached the bigs.

The outfield is another matter. It was mostly mediocre this season. Dexter Fowler had a good first month, and that was about it. Jose Martinez' only baseball skill is hitting, and he only did that at an average rate this year. Harrison Bader, conversely, couldn't hit a damn thing this year, but was about the same value as Fowler and Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna has never quite been the big bat the Cardinals were hoping for when they traded for him. He'll have stretches where he lights the world on fire, but overall, he's been above-average and that's about it. Seems like a cool guy, though.

The good news is, the team has a bunch of young guys that have either already reached the majors briefly, or are in AAA, that look like they could be really good outfielders. They have the potential at least. Bader was excellent last year, Tyler O'Neill killed AAA a season ago. Lane Thomas hasn't hit much in the minors, but in the (extremely) limited chance he got this year in St. Louis, he crushed the ball. Randy Arozarena killed AAA for half a season this year, and looks like he can do some of everything. The one game he got to start in September, against the Diamondbacks, he stole home, threw out a runner at third from right-centerfield, and hit his first home run, by the end of the sixth inning. Justin Williams finally showed the power he displays in batting practice during games this year for a month or so. Dylan Carlson reached AAA at 20 frickin' years old, and tore it up for the last few weeks of the season.

Point being, there are options. Granted, there are questions about all of them. Bader followed up a 2018 where his OPS was 6% better than average with a 2019 where it was 22% worse than average. O'Neill hasn't demonstrated he understands the strike zone at the MLB level, with 110 strikeouts in less than 300 plate appearances, against only 17 walks. But those PAs are split over two seasons, and he rarely gets consistent playing time (partially his own fault, since he seems to get hurt a lot). Thomas has never hit in the minors to suggest what he did in the majors was anything other than a 44 PA hot streak. Although those were spread out over about two months, so again, not like he was getting regular playing time, sine Mike Shildt insisted on starting Yairo fucking Munoz in centerfield more than Lane Thomas, an actual outfielder.

There are questions if Arozarena can hit for enough power, although I think being a line-drive machine with the ability to draw walks is good enough, personally. Williams really only has that brief stretch this year where the power has actually shown through. Carlson is only 20, and has less than 100 PAs at AAA. The league needs a chance to adjust to him, to see if he can adjust to that. there is a decent chance that at least two to three of those six are busts, and that two of the others are only average. Maybe one will be an All-Star, two, tops.

But the Cardinals won't know if they don't play them, and that's my concern. Because Shildt was more than willing to start Fowler, who is not a good centerfielder, ahead of Bader at times this year. He was willing to bench Bader and play Munoz or Tommy Edman, both of whom are infielders. Edman flat out said he hadn't played outfield since he was 12 or some shit. Granted he looks like he's only 13, but Baseball-Reference swears he's 24. Munoz and Edman both played more innings in the outfield than Thomas or Arozarena, who are, again, actual outfielders. Good ones! Like, legit league-average centerfielders defensively, at least, and Shildt has utility infielders running around out there like this is a Little League game.

So I need Ozuna to reject the qualifying offer and sign elsewhere. I need the Cardinals' front office to trade Fowler for something, anything. Do the Mike Leake approach, eat a third of the contract, and trade Fowler for an A-ball pitcher with good velocity but poor results. Because if Ozuna is here, he'll start, everyday. Ditto for Dexter Fowler. Mike Shildt made that abundantly clear, by starting them basically everyday they weren't out with an injury. We've seen what they can do, and it's not enough. I'm pretty confident that Thomas or Arozarena can, on strength of defense and baserunning alone, be more valuable than Fowler. If they can be even league-average hitters or close to it, they'll be way more valuable than him, and probably more valuable than Ozuna.

Shildt has stated the Cardinals recognize the importance of defense, even as many of his roster and playing time decisions say precisely the opposite. Well, put your money where your mouth is and play an outfield full of guys who are going to be really good defensively, and see if they can hit enough. Because most of the guys he played this year in the outfield couldn't do either.

So all of that has me worried, because I don't think the team sees it the way I do, and I'm pretty much waiting for the point when they trade the guys I want to see away, and I'm stuck watching a bunch of old, broke down veterans stumble around in the field next season, repeatedly screwing over the pitching staff with lousy defense. But maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised! Nothing's happened yet.

* As a point of comparison, the Nationals had 9 players worth at least 2 wins above replacement, to the Cards' 10. But the Nats had 7 players worth at least 3 WAR, versus the Cards' 4, and 4 players worth at least 5 WAR, versus the Cardinals' 1.

** I don't actually mind the Cardinals' loyalty to the guys who have been there a long time. I know it isn't always optimal in terms of winning, but I appreciate that the team appears to care a little bit about continuity, and the fans developing a connection with particular players. Even if it is just a way to sell more Yadi Molina merchandise.