Bernie (William H. Macy) works in a casino run by Shelly (Alec Baldwin) as a "cooler." He gets near someone winning too much and their luck immediately goes south. He wears drab suits, has a pronounced limp and not so much a hangdog expression as one where the weariness has etched itself in like water wearing away rock.
He's sweet on Natalie (Maria Bello), one of the waitresses, and after he gets her assigned to the big money tables one night, she asks if he wants to get something to eat after work. The return to his crappy hotel room home. They spend more time together. Bernie starts wearing brighter colors. The limp is less noticeable. There's still cream available for his coffee.
The problem is, as Bernie grows happier, he becomes the opposite of a cooler. The people near him start winning like crazy. Which is bad news for Shelly, who is trying to stop the casino being renovated to a more modern look by a Harvard guy (Ron Livingston) Shelly's bosses brought in with a lot of ideas. So Shelly moves to protect his turf.
In the early going, I figured Larry (Harvard boy) was the villain. He wants to redesign the casino to be flashy, ditch the Sinatra-esque lounge singer (Paul Sorvino) for a flashy new guy (played by Joey Fatone.) Muted color schemes, and music with a 'subsonic mantra' of "lose, lose, lose." Or as Shelly puts it, he wants the place Disney-fied.
The further the film goes, the more clear it is Shelly's the villain. From Bernie explaining his limp was Shelly breaking his leg so he'd have a reminder not to gamble, to his sneering, incredulous condescension towards any of Larry's ideas, to breaking the legs of Bernie's loser son, after Bernie promised to pay off what the kid cheated to win (even though the kid didn't get away with the money.) To his efforts to remove Natalie. Shelly's a piece of shit, clutching to his fiefdom in the face of things that are changing. Bernie can't be allowed to be leave, because that would change things. He also can't be allowed to be happy if he stays, because that changes thing.
(For the record, Livingston's character isn't a good person, he's just the bloodless, insincere type who looks at everything as a spreadsheet. What's the approach best for the bottom line, to have the person barred or have them beaten to shit?)
It's a good role for Baldwin, playing an abusive control freak who pretends he's doing it all in your best interests. Never have him play characters with integrity, unless it's just a lie they've bought in on. Macy and Bello play well of each other, as you can see Bernie struggling at first to enjoy the moments together, to not worry about how it's all going to go wrong. And gradually it gets easier, until things do go wrong. Bello's alternately playful, supportive, vulnerable and desperate as the situation escalates. Trying not to spook Bernie, then gradually feeling comfortable opening up to him, with her own dread about how it's all going to go wrong.
One thing I noticed the movie never seems to address is, when Bernie tells Natalie things always go wrong for him because he's a loser, she calls it a self-fulfilling prophecy. But she apparently believes in astrology, predicting outcomes based on the stars. Which also feels like a self-fulfilling prophecy. Oh, the relationship won't work because Mars is in retrograde, and look, it didn't work out! But maybe I'm taking her interest at face value more than I should.
The ending felt too cute at first impression, but the more I think on it, it fits. The film has established that for whatever reason, the course of things swing on Bernie's mood. When he's happy, things are good for those around him (except Shelly, but he's an ass so who cares.) When he's down, they aren't. In that climactic moment, he focuses on the good thing he has right there, that second, not on how horribly it looks like it's about to end. And his luck turns to the better, improbably so.
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